GENESIS INVITATIONAL
Best bets
2.5pts each-way Collin Morikawa @ 12/1
2pts each-way Rory McIlroy @ 7/1
1pt each-way Daniel Berger @ 80/1
1pt each-way Harris English @ 50/1
0.5pt each-way Sepp Straka @ 40/1
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Such a disappointment, Tiger Woods pulling out of this week’s Genesis Invitational because he was just not mentally ready following the death of his adored mother. So the eagerly-awaited return for his first 72-hole appearance since the Open last July has had to be put on hold.
Whether he’d shot 68 or 78, whether his battered 49-year-old body survived 72 holes on a monster golf course without the help of a buggy, or whether he’d missed the cut, Woods was urgently needed to breathe oxygen into a game mired in the negativity of slow play, diminishing TV ratings and the schism between the PGA Tour and LIV that prevents players of the calibre of Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau and Tyrrell Hatton strutting their stuff.
Never mind that the Genesis, rerouted from its regular home at plush Riviera to San Diego muni Torrey Pines because of the wildfire misery at Pacific Palisades, is a pukka $20m Signature event with an elite cast headed by world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and Pebble Beach hero Rory McIlroy, the world No. 1195 would inevitably have commanded the lion’s share of the headlines. Even at pushing 50, Woods is still the biggest draw in golf.
Could Tiger have conquered Torrey Pines for a ninth time, a course he almost ‘owned’ in his prime? Not a cat in hell’s chance. Could he have made top ten? Most unlikely. Make the cut (for there is one in a field of 74)? For sure – he played limp-free if not pain-free and more than decently for three days partnering son Charley in the traditional pre-Christmas family tournament but that was fun golf.
This would have been a whole different ball game, there are few duds among the opposition, they have all been playing regular competitive golf, even Scheffler and Ludvig Aberg whose participation was interrupted by injury or illness, and the only big name missing is world No. 2 Xander Schauffele, still troubled by the strained rib muscle which has already cost him two starts.
Even more of a shame because the switch from Riviera, where he had never won, to his beloved Torrey must have suited Tiger down to the ground even though at a mind-boggling 7765 yards and the longest course they play this year, it is a ferocious test. It would have shown him and us where he stood with Augusta just eight weeks away.
Had Woods played, it would also have taken media pressure off Scheffler who has been notably low-key in two starts since his delayed return following a cut-hand accident with a broken wine glass at Christmas and, boy, how they are hating it in the States as the Europeans keep socking it to them.
On Sunday it was the turn of 80/1 outsider Thomas Detry, the stylish Belgian who had not won in 228 European and US starts but showed not a trace of nerves as he soared to a seven-stroke victory in Arizona, a five-star performance that quietened the most boisterous crowd on tour. Now that he has broken the ice, Detry will definitely win again.
It completed a Euro treble teed off by Austria’s Sepp Straka at the AmEx and bolstered by a 1-2-3 from McIlroy, Shane Lowry and Justin Rose at Pebble Beach. Even the lone American winner, in a year that began with Japan’s Hideki Matsuyama and Canadian Nick Taylor knocking off the opening two in Hawaii, was English – Harris English!
His victory came at Torrey Pines which is where we are this week but Torrey is a different course as there’s no 550-yard shorter North course to give them a breather this time. All four rounds are on the South, as they were in the two US Opens there in 2008 and 2021 and although the course won’t be set up as tough there will be nowhere to hide.
In 2008 Tiger and his playoff victim Rocco Mediate were the only two to finish under the card when it was a par 71; 13 years later, against the current par of 72, Jon Rahm got it to six under. And when English won the Farmers the other week he posted only eight under even with the North as part of the assignment. So this will be no birdie breeze but a graft-fest, a place for straight, patient drivers. A double-digit under-par winner is unlikely and favourite Scheffler won’t be arriving in his best frame of mind after an untypical Scottsdale fade-out.
Neither he nor McIlroy has been a frequenter of the Farmers but we know they can handle Torrey Pines as they shared seventh place in the 2021 US Open, five off the winner. After Sunday’s sloppy display which saw him slide from fourth to 25th on the back nine, Scheffler has work to do in the driving and putting departments if he is to justify short odds.
At the prices, McIlroy, finally displaying at Pebble the discipline that was separating him from top man Scheffler, is much preferred. He had a Farmers T3 the year before that T7 at the US Open and looks an each-way steal at 7/1. A fourth European victory in five will rub American noses in it and strike another psychological blow in Ryder Cup year.
Yet for my main bet I’m looking at Collin Morikawa, a fabulous 32 under when foiled by an unstoppable Matsuyama display at Kapalua last month and a US Open fourth to Rahm at Torrey in 2021 on top of a third there at the 2020 Farmers. A big-occasion player with two Majors to his name but hungry for the W missing from his record since 2023, his game looks ideally suited to this assignment.
At longer prices, consider Daniel Berger after his Phoenix T2 on Sunday. That was a taste of the Berger of old after a long injury layoff. Don’t forget this unorthodox but effective operator made Ryder Cup a few years back and took out Matt Fitzpatrick in the singles.
Another one-time Ryder Cupper, English, has not only just won at Torrey with a patient display but was third to Rahm there in the 2021 US Open. A second victory in four weeks is not beyond the bounds of possibility for this shrewd cookie.
It must be a concern for intended backers of the market leaders that the last two Farmers have gone to names that don’t exactly leap off the page, English beating Sam Stevens and Andrew Novak the other day and Matthieu Pavon an even bigger shock when winning from Nicolai Hojgaard and Stephan Jaeger in a 1-2-3 for Europe in 2024.
The length of the course tells you that bombers must be advantaged but the last two results say otherwise as English and Pavon rely on other attributes. We could be in for another turn-up as San Diego is due some very British weather – cool, wet and windy at least for the first two days.
Europe are by no means a one-man band and Straka, still playing hot golf after that impressive AmEx victory (T7 at Pebble and 15th at Phoenix since), Detry, the first Belgian ever to win on the PGA Tour, Lowry, foiled only by an inspired McIlroy at Pebble, and Aberg, if fully recovered from the bout of food poisoning that wrecked his last two intended tournaments, all merit consideration. Justin Thomas looks best of the other Americans but oh how we shall miss Tiger!
LIV ADELAIDE
Best bets
4pts win Jon Rahm @ 11/2
0.5pt each-way Anirban Lahiri @ 50/1
2pts Lucas Herbert @ 4/1 top five
1.5pts each-way Caleb Surratt @ 12/1 top US
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Now that he’s got used to the pop music blaring out while he’s putting and all the other sideshows that make up the LIV golf experience, the shotgun start, the shorter tournament span, the team ethic and all the general hoopla and razzmatazz, watch Jon Rahm go this year. Back him to win Down Under in Adelaide before LIV’s second tournament tees off on Friday and keep backing him!
The great Spaniard took quite a while before he started justifying the outrageous signing-on fee he commanded, reported to be $400m, but he ended his first year with LIV as their individual champion, overhauling pacesetter Joaquin Niemann. And he led his Legion XIII squad from the front to four team triumphs, a total added to in Riyadh last week when they finished in another county to their 12 toiling rivals after an amazing start that saw them 24 under after day one.
It was clear in Saudi that their new signing, 22-year-old Northern Irishman Tom McKibbin, was a significant improvement on the axed Kieran Vincent, and with Tyrrell Hatton another tremendous asset, if they don’t beat last year’s tally, I’ll eat my hat.
Last year it was claimed 94,000 fans, many of them well oiled and loud in support of the all-Aussie squad of Cameron Smith, Marc Leishman, Lucas Herbert and Matt Jones and their team victory at The Grange club after a playoff sparked great celebrations. Only one of them, Jones, made top-ten individually but all played consistently and now that all four scores count (it was three before), consistency becomes even more key.
There was nothing consistent about the Australian performance last week: Smith even four-putted on the way to 25th place, Jones did even worse in 33rd (out of 54).
Only Herbert (T4) and Leishman (T6) measured up and while we can expect the Adelaide crowd to provide plenty of inspiration, it may not be enough. I expect Herbert to be their main man again and fancy him at 4/1 for a top-five finish but for the win it has to be Rahm, T2 behind 80/1 winner Adrian Meronk in Riyadh (would have caught the Pole if his putter hadn’t misbehaved) and T2 behind an even bigger outsider in Brendan Steele last year when the tournament was held in April.
By moving it forward to February, LIV hope to catch more of the Australian summer, but it couldn’t be a less user-friendly watch for UK and Irish punters as it tees off in the middle of the night over here and will be done and dusted by the time normal human beings get up to put the kettle on for their breakfast cuppa. Tee-off UK time is 2.15am on Friday (12.45pm there) and 1.15 the other two days, so get those bets on now!
Apart from Rahm and Herbert, I’ll be taking an each-way stab at the very promising Caleb Surratt, only 20, at Fitzdares’ 12/1 for top American as the favourite on this market, Bryson DeChambeau’s two cracks at The Grange, a 6946-yard par 72 part-designed by former LIV CEO and Aussie legend Greg Norman, have been pretty lamentable (26th and 27th).
The two LIV course winners Steele and Talor Gooch are struggling too and mighty Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka are having problems living up to their big reputations. No wonder the Americans are having a hard time.
In contrast, Surratt’s recent form has been excellent, just pipped in a playoff for the Saudi International in December and in 11th spot as a key member of Rahm’s runaway winners last week.
The 50/1 about 2023 runner-up Anirban Lahiri also catches the eye. A solid 12th with three sub-70 rounds in Riyadh, the Indian star previously racked up a trio of top tens on the Asian Tour and with LIV in Chicago. Unlikely to win as he finds that bit of the game tricky (but you just never know – look at how cool serial loser Thomas Detry was in finally cracking the code at Scottsdale), it’s easier to make a case for him making the top five.
As we saw last week when Meronk stormed off with a 62 on day one and Legion XIII did likewise in the team event, making up lost ground when it’s only 54 holes and the courses aren’t too difficult is never easy. There’ll be plenty of wind in Adelaide, enabling straight drivers like Rahm, Hatton and Lahiri to show their class. They, Herbert, McKibbin and Surratt make up my top half dozen.
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