Best bets
2pts Ryder Cup @ 12/1 to be a draw (or tie)
1pt USA to win 14.5-13.5 @ 10/1
1pt Europe to win 14.5-13.5 @ 11/1
1pt Viktor Hovland @ 11/2 top European
1pt Scottie Scheffler @ 9/2 top American
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At last the long wait is over. The Ryder Cup is here, teeing off in Italy for the first time at the Marco Simone course outside Rome on Friday, and if it’s anywhere near as thrilling as the heartstopping 14-14 Solheim Cup dead-heat in Andalucia it will be an absolute corker.
Europe has a score to settle. They got hammered by a record ten points at Whistling Straits, Wisconsin, two years ago by one of the strongest teams the USA has ever fielded.
The Americans are on a mission to end 30 years of often brutal beatings on European soil. Not since 1993 have they won away from home. They’ve lost by a whisker at Valderrama and Celtic Manor, by three at The Belfry, by nine at the K Club, by five at Gleneagles and by seven at Le Golf National in Paris. Arriving with seven of the warriors who dished out the walloping at Whistling Straits, including Scottie Scheffler who has since ascended to the position of world No. 1, this is their best chance of avenging three decades of misery on European shores.
They have been longtime favourites given their massive 200-point superiority cumulatively on world rankings with all 12 players ranked in the top 25 but confidence in Europe is so high that, like the Solheim Cup, the 2/1 has been whittled down to 11/10 with Fitzdares now almost parity with the USA at evens.
The surge of Norway’s FedEx Cup champion Viktor Hovland to arguably the best golfer in the world on current form and the sudden emergence of captain Luke Donald’s ‘secret weapon’, Sweden’s ice-cool Ludvig Aberg, transformed almost overnight from outstanding amateur to front-line winning professional, have been the chief reasons behind the gamble on the home side. But will that plus home advantage be enough to wipe away the huge deficit from the last lop-sided encounter, so humiliating that Rory McIlroy broke down tearfully on camera when blaming himself for not doing more for his shattered team.
Now a revitalised,happier McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Hovland are ranked 2, 3 and 4 in the world. Can this strength at the top, which also takes in world-class, in-form players like Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick, make up for the perceived weakness at the bottom with untested rookies Bob MacIntyre, the only course winner in the field, and Nicolai Hojgaard? Will Sepp Straka make a contribution?
We saw in the Solheim that thrusting an outstanding amateur, Rose Zhang, into top-level matchplay after just a few months as a pro is a big ask. We could see in spells how very good she was yet she failed to deliver a point. Aberg and Donald cannot help but have noticed. But you don’t get to be world No. 1 for 56 weeks without being a tough cookie and Donald is nobody’s fool. And he knew straight away he wanted Aberg. He will need to be equally decisive in his pairings and use of labour.
On an undulating, tough-walking course, fitness will be key. Expect McIlroy, Hovland and Fleetwood, all fit as fleas and raring to go, to be pitched into all five series, the bulkier Rahm and Hatton, whose fragile temperament burns up so much energy, may sit one out.
When betting on top points scorer markets, remember it pays to wait until the Friday foursomes line-ups are announced at Thursday’s opening ceremony. If your man’s name isn’t there, he’s highly unlikely to top-score (although that theory didn’t work at the Solheim as Europe’s unbeaten Carlota Ciganda sat out Friday morning).
In the hope that Hovland may get the arrow-straight fellow Scandinavian Aberg as his foursomes and fourball partner at some stage, he’s my pick for top Euro points, with Rory second choice.
The players you expect to do great things often let you down and it’s the ones you least expect, like Hedwall and Ciganda in the heat of Solheim Sunday, who come up trumps while Europe’s highest-ranked golfer, Celine Boutier, didn’t get even half a point in three days. That’s matchplay for you. There are always upsets.
Remember Costantino Rocca beating Tiger Woods at Valderrama in 1997 and Philip Price taking Phil Mickelson’s scalp at The Belfry in 2002. They made the difference between victory and defeat. On Sunday it may be Straka, MacIntyre or Hojgaard who makes that same difference.
This team of Americans are good but not scarily good, not even the main man Scheffler. An unreliable putter has cost him and he has not won since March. Five of the 12 have not won this year. Winning a Major does not make Brian Harman or Wyndham Clark great players. Great for one week, yes, but will they be great at 18-hole matchplay head-to-heads in front of a wildly partisan crowd on a course that won’t be set up in their favour? It’s a long way from Hoylake for Harman.
American captain Zach Johnson has two ready-made pairings in great mates Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele and the almost inseparable Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas. If Donald can lower their colours on the first day, Europe could be on their way. It won’t have escaped his notice that none of that quartet has won this year but Max Homa who starred on his Presidents Cup debut, is in better form than most and has the sort of personality to thrive in this unique atmosphere could have a good week.
With Scheffler likely to team up with his chum Sam Burns, Homa could go with PGA champion and the only LIV representative Brooks Koepka or Collin Morikawa. The laid-back unflappable Scheffler, the class act, is my idea of top US scorer, with Homa next best. But Johnson may regret not giving a pick to Bryson DeChambeau, spectacular winner of two recent LIV tournaments. No European would relish facing him.
The format of having to play only eight players in each session improves the chances of Europe in one sense given they are stronger at the top but if some big guns have to play up to 72 holes the first two days, fresher singles rivals may reap the benefit.
I’m anticipating a desperately close-run affair and a repeat of the Solheim scoreline wouldn’t be the greatest surprise. Sunday’s dead-heat was the first in Solheim Cup history but we’ve had two in the Ryder Cup, the first in 1969 when it was GB & Ireland v USA before continental Europe got involved, the second at The Belfry 20 years later.
If forced to pick, Europe just get the vote as the home side has won seven of the last eight encounters, the lone exception being the Miracle At Medinah in 2012 when Europe came back from 10-6 down. And as the last two Italian Opens have been played at Marco Simone, they will also know the course with its risk-and-reward holes encouraging aggressive play far better. But with the 2/1 long gone, so has the value.
The big difference with a second 14-14 stalemate is that the USA, as cup-holders, would retain the trophy in the same way as Europe, as Solheim Cup-holders, clung on to theirs. Not exactly what captain Donald had in mind perhaps but an honourable share-out of the spoils after two weeks of golfing bliss that will sadly never be repeated. Henceforth the two competitions will be played in alternate years to avoid such a date clash, starting with the Solheim in Gainesville, Virginia, next September.
Great weather news: three days ahead without a cloud in the Roman sky and temperatures in the mid-80s. And Sudden Impact in the Arc on Sunday too … can’t wait!
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