Two rounds gone and three to go. Tipping wise, no point pretending that the second round was my greatest set of predictions. We started with a bang though. Ange Capuozzo finishing in fantastic style against Wales. 9/2. And then it got worse. Much worse for Wales and their now former head coach, Warren Gatland.
If England’s 5 point margin of defeat didn’t tell the truth, the whole truth etc in Dublin, Wales scrambled late bonus point in the 22-15 loss in Rome was a blatant lie. Italy were the better team from the 1st to 80th minute. I don’t know, because I was in the Twickenham press box watching what looked like a gloomy afternoon of rugby in Italy.
France were about to play it all fingers and thumbs as they offered England a chance to upset the odds which, to their credit, they did with some style in the second half. Meanwhile, warm cup of coffee in hand, I watched Italy produce an extremely high quality display of tactical kicking. From scrum or fly half, it seemed that whenever their half backs kicked, they regained the ball. It was no risk, smart rugby suited to the drizzle that seemed to have cloaked Europe from London to Rome on Saturday.
I thought Italy hadn’t the form to be 2/5 and therefore Wales, at 5/2 made sense but Wales are a team, we can now see, in a state of despair. That was their 14th straight defeat. They have fallen below even Georgia in the world rankings. Warren Gatland did the right thing by walking. With Ireland, England and Scotland to come, it could be a long Six Nations for Wales.
Sunday proved to be an agonising afternoon for Scotland. Make ten straight defeats against Ireland into 11. It didn’t help that Finn Russell and Darcy Graham were both withdrawn early in the game after they collided heads. But even by then, the writing was on the Murrayfield walls. Ireland didn’t play it pretty but there was a degree of awe in the Barnes household, as the visitors pressurised Scotland from start to finish. Scotland were suffocated. They didn’t have time to breathe.
Tom Jordan, a Kiwi debutant, is a classy player for Glasgow but he couldn’t handle the heat as he moved from inside centre to fly half with Russell’s injury. It was asking too much of the man, too much of Scotland.
The final scoreline of 18-32 was flattering – from a Scottish perspective. Ireland hammered them. It was the most impressive eighty minutes of the tournament to date. When asked about his old team’s Grand Slam chances, Ronan O’Gara made the valid point that France have the players to beat Ireland, even in Dublin. The La Rochelle manager felt there was no need to mention Scotland and Italy. France famously drew with Italy in France last season but don’t expect any such similar repeat in Rome.
France have been stung and will look to bounce back from Twickenham with strong performances against Italy and Scotland. But all roads now lead to Dublin in round four. It’s the Grand Slam decider from an Irish perspective. It’s France’s chance to save what will be a very disappointing season were they to lose 2 matches. To lose to Scotland as well would be a sporting catastrophe for `Les Bleus.’
The European mizzle seemed to cause France to lose their ability to catch.
Man for man, as O’Gara pointed out, France have the ability to end Ireland’s dreams but collectively they will start very much the underdogs. Yet we should be careful about having our thoughts driven purely by results. Ireland…yes, they were excellent but France produced some scintillating stuff against England.
The European mizzle seemed to cause France to lose their ability to catch. On 3 occasions at least, France had the try line at their mercy only for England fans to end up with a `merci’ of their own as men like Antoine Dupont and Damien Penaud fluffed their lines. Had France won the odds would be much shorter on a French victory. As it is, Ireland are in pole position for the Grand Slam but don’t write France off.
Finally England. What an exciting match it was; what a great atmosphere and what an unforgettable final 15 minutes. Were England fortunate? Undoubtedly so. But the sheer fact of beating one of the world’s best and ending a long losing run against the elite cannot be underestimated. Psychologically, England were digging themselves into a deep hole. They are now out of it and will feel all the better for it.
They haven’t beaten Scotland in their last 4 attempts (3 losses and a draw). They will be heavy favourites for the forthcoming Calcutta Cup match but Scotland are back in the position of underdogs. We’ll have to wait and see whether Russell is fit to start. If both he and their skipper, Sione Tuipolotu are missing, it will blunt a midfield that started the season as a potential Lions test combination.
They remain potent out wide as Van der Merwe showed with his finish on the stroke of half time but whether the inside backs will provide the quality he, Blair Kinghorn and Huw Jones require is up for debate.
What is undebatable is the form of Tom Curry. He’ll lead the harassing operation while all eyes will be on Fin Smith to orchestrate the entire test match as he did the final 15 minutes. One swallow doesn’t make a summer – especially in February – and English fans can be forgiven for an excess of optimism – so let’s wait and see that Scottish team before getting carried away. We’ll wait for the teams, the news before we try and pick a few winners in round 3.
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