IRELAND VS FRANCE
All roads were supposed to lead to Dublin. This was the Grand Slam decider – or so it was predicted until England beat France in the second round of the Six Nations…or should that be ‘France beat itself.’ I don’t know about the better team losing but the more talented one most certainly did. Antoine Dupont dropped a pass with the try line at his mercy…and the great man was tipped to be first try scorer!
Their reaction was dramatic. Fabien Galthie dropped the magnificently gifted Damien Penaud as a reminder that no one is indispensable even though he scored one try and played a hefty part in two others. France didn’t let us down in round three as they romped to an astonishing 73 points in Rome. If they are as angry as they appeared against Italy, Ireland’s Grand Slam dream could be a tattered nightmare come full time.
After the French defeat at Twickenham, Ronan O’ Gara was asked about his country’s Slam hopes. He said France have the players to beat Ireland; then he paused. As if Ireland had the coaching and the preparation, France the genius. That’s not to say that Ireland aren’t loaded with exceptional talent of their own.
Their pressure game against Scotland was staggering. But maybe France possess the individuals who can turn Irish line speed against itself. The return of Toulouse fly half, Romain Ntamack, alongside Dupont creates extra problems inside the rushed middle of the field. I like the idea of a 14-1 nibble at the fly half to be first try scorer. Strictly for the smallest stakes with Cheltenham on the horizon!
But who to tip? Last year I fancied France in Marseilles but they were missing the main man and hungover from the World Cup. Ireland were far too professional. They beat them with conviction. Saturday’s game in in Dublin and Ireland are looking the complete team. They are 5/6 favourites and deserve to be so but something in my old mate, Ronan’s eyes, when he said France have the players to win, tempts me into an away win. The logic says back Ireland. So if you are of logical persuasion ignore the next sentence.
It could be tight and if that is the case, I’ll go for the romance (even though it rarely comes through) and the genius at half back, the brilliance in the back 3 and the bulk of their pack with a 7-1 split on the replacements bench to wear Ireland down up front.
Recommended bets:
First Try Scorer Romain Ntamack @ 14/1
France to win @ 11/10
Nobody is that impressed with them. They’ve won two games yet the only way to go remains upwards.
SCOTLAND VS WALES
Gregor Townsend’s team are becoming difficult to trust. Like France they really should have beaten England at Twickenham. Like France they possess some dash and devil behind the scrum but what they lack is a dominant pack. They did a decent job in slowing England down at the breakdown but I have half a hunch that England were more than content with this as an excuse to revert to box kicking.
One side played all the rugby, the other the percentages and whilst the percentages prevailed it was only due to circumstances that bordered on the freakish. Finn Russell isn’t the greatest kicker ever to lace a pair of boots but when has he last missed three from three kicks at goal. One of them was eminently gettable, two were tough but he’s a man for the pressure moment…and he missed. Don’t expect such profligate kicking again.
And do expect a rebound from Russell. I had half a mind to put him up as first try scorer at 12-1. It wouldn’t surprise me. But more likely it will be one of his beautiful long passes to his devastating back 3 which opens Wales up early in the game. Duhan van der Merwe is understandable the favourite to score first (joint favourite with other winger, Darcy Graham) but I’ll suggest slightly better odds by backing Blair Kinghorn. The full back is in great form and just as likely to lope over with those long legs as hand on a try scoring pass.
As for Wales, it is difficult to work out whether they can repeat the hugely improved performance from round three. They had a new coach, no pressure, little in the way of expectation. Having written that, they never gave up in the awful final days of Gatland. Maybe they don’t have the 23 man squad power to go all the way in Murrayfield but don’t bet against them plus 7.5 points to lead at half time. But go easy.
Recommended bets:
Wales +7.5 @ 10/11
First Try Scorer Blair Kinghorn @ 15/2
ENGLAND VS ITALY
I’ll be a little surprised if England don’t win this one by more than the one point that sufficed against Scotland and France. The question is, surely, what’s the margin. France beat them by 49 points in Rome but England – although they may have beaten France are not in the same league as an attacking force.
But will they have to be? Italy trooped off the field a demoralised team having boosted their hopes by winning against Wales in round two. As for England, they really are in the best of positions. A team winning but criticised by their own. Nobody is that impressed with them. They’ve won two games yet the only way to go remains upwards. And I think they’ll deliver more than the boredom of the box kick.
The scrum has been solid all Six Nations. That was one of Italy’s few weapons against France. If England nullify that Italian strength, it will be seen as a psychological blow. The return of Jamie George for his 100th cap will be a boost in itself but more significant is his accuracy at the line out. Luke Cowan-Dickie is a feisty hooker but far from accurate in the George mould. He can find jumpers like Ollie Chessum at the tail of the line out and release runners like Ollie Lawrence over the gain line.
In fact the 12-1 I was quoted yesterday looks worth a few quid. There’s plenty going on in the centre with Fraser Dingwall in for Henry Slade against an Italian centre pairing as good as any in the championship. For that reasons I recommend Italy at 8/11 it score 14.5 points plus. It’s not as if England have convinced to date defensively. This will be a high scoring game.
Recommended bets:
First Try Scorer Ollie Lawrence @12/1
Italy to score +14.5 points @8/11
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