After standing in the terrace at Cheltenham and watching first Constitution Hill and then State Man blunder away the Champion Hurdle, I vowed to avoid any short odds suggestions in the final week of the Six Nations. Lots is unlikely in life but in sport, little is impossible. Wales and Italy cannot win the title. That is impossible. Someone tells me that it is mathematically possible for Scotland to prevail. I didn’t bother to check.
Ireland could win. It would need France to play the Constitution Hill role and England the State Man. We’ll address these scenarios soon but, suffice to say, one fall ends everything in the National Hunt game whereas in rugby it’s a two horse race and you can make half a dozen howlers and still win if – essentially – you are the better team.
Which brings us onto France. They are the best team in the tournament. And they made enough handling blunders to lose against England. I reckon they would beat England 8 times out of 10 in Twickenham. They should be going for the Grand Slam. Instead they have to settle for a Six Nations title. They’ll win it and win it well. We’ll come to the denouement of the Six Nations all in good time but let’s start this week’s previews in Rome.
Italy to beat Ireland @ 17/2
Over 64.5 points total @ 10/11
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At the start of the season, when I did my own crystal ball trick, I had Ireland losing at home to France in round four. Bang, Grand Slam gone. So it came to pass, although France ruined our Grand Slam expectations earlier.
I anticipated Ireland being disappointed and heading to Italy a little off their usual levels of suffocating intensity. In test match rugby, that makes a difference. Logic says it won’t be enough for Italy, who took a terrible battering at French hands in Rome before losing by 23 points at Twickenham, but if there is ever a time to take logic on, this is it.
Deep down I don’t believe Ireland will lose but is there a viable chance of a massive shock? Maybe. If Ireland are not their usual choking selves Italy will cause chaos with the pair centre pairing in the tournament and a bona fide little genius in Ange Cappuozzo.
If you have enjoyed a profitable Cheltenham have the tiniest of punts on the shock of the season and an Italy win at 17/2. If you are looking to recoup losses I would suggest betting on a points total of 64.5 plus at 5/6. Italy score plenty but conceded even more. In their last two matches they have conceded in excess of 100 and 70 points respectively. That’s the more sensible of my two suggestions but sometimes…
Tommy Freeman first try scorer @ 9/1
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I see Sam Warburton is tipping Wales in the paper I write for. Nice to see some patriotism. But I’m not too sure that it isn’t misplaced. Who am I to question a twice Lions skipper who was at the helm when Wales beat England 30-3 in Cardiff and claimed an unexpected Six Nations title when the story pre match was all about England and their Grand Slam. Ah, but that was a Welsh team full of fine players and used to winning. Until Wales win it is only the patriot who can seriously back them.
I know Cardiff well and it can be crazy enough to ruffle the most accomplished. Steve Bothwick has come up with a strategy to field 3 fly halves in his squad; one at full back, one at fly half, one on the bench. The key man of the trio – if Wales get going – is the replacement.
George Ford can kick Wales away from the positions where they fought back in a frenzy against Scotland. Remember, Wales were appalling for the first 50 minutes against Scotland. They were excellent against Wales for the first half but fell away.
They are a team yet to prove they can play 80 minutes at an intense level, either physically or psychologically. Remind you of anyone? Yes, I have long been writing that until England start winning, they should not be expected to win. Albeit their last 3 wins have been at Twickenham, they have renewed themselves with the winning habit.
Ford appears the smartest of safety nets for Saturday while Wales have forgotten how to win anywhere against anyone. I am tempted to write that 1/4 England to win is generous…whoops I have done it. But those are not prices to tempt. Maybe if you have enjoyed a stellar festival.
This is a game England should win but I can’t envision a bet at such odds. I do like the look of Tommy Freeman as first try scorer. I thought he would be 9/2 – especially playing inside centre and told to get his hands on the ball – he’s 9/1.
France -17 points @ 10/11
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Our Grand Slam bet all those weeks back blew it. It hurts because they are by far the best team in the tournament. It took a freak sequence of errors to lose the Slam. The bad news for Scotland is that those casual dropped passes have ignited them. The 73 point haul in Rome was impressive but nothing compared to the supreme discipline in defence against Ireland for the opening 20 minute salvo, followed by some devastating attacking. Next to South Africa they are the best team in the world.
Even the injury to Antoine Dupont failed to check them. Maxime Lucu has been brilliant for Bordeaux all season. He came off the bench in Dublin and didn’t break sweat. The mind set is good, the pack is mighty and the finishing power of the wings as deadly as the boot of the full back. This is a team.
Scotland have produced some gilded back play of their own but life could be difficult for their conjurer in chief, Finn Russell, if the pack are on the back foot. Everything suggests that will be the case. The Scottish line out has degenerated to the state of shambles it was against Wales. France beat Wales 43-0 before it accelerated its game. Scotland nearly came unstuck. Russell’s absence in the last quarter was a factor but their weakness of bench compared to France’s colossal 23 man squad is telling.
While acknowledging that mostly anything can happen – for example Golden Ace’s 25-1 Champion Hurdle win – I will be surprised if France do not cover -17 points and romp away at 10/11. That’s my bet of the weekend.
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